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CONSUELO MACK: Hello and welcome to this special edition
of WealthTrack, I’m Consuelo Mack. Our
focus this week is real estate, both the market
for homes and for investment properties.
On the home front, residential sales are showing
signs of a slowdown… by historical standards,
home sales are still strong. But the market
has moved out of the boom phase that saw prices
rising by an average of more than fifty percent
over the past five years and more than double
in many cities.
If you are worried about the value of your
home, you are in good company. Yale economist
and professor Robert Shiller has been warning
about the perils of a real estate bubble in
the latest version of his best-selling book,
“Irrational Exhuberance” his views
are worth listening to. Shiller has been a
pioneer in the study of behavioral finance,
which analyzes why people make the financial
decisions they do. He also correctly predicted
the bursting of the tech bubble... Will he
be right again?
In a recent interview I asked Shiller to explain
the role emotions play in real estate and
the financial markets.
...
CONSUELO MACK: The real estate market in 2005
had a split personality. While residential
markets cooled, commercial real estate heated
up. Whether this sector can continue its winning
ways in 2006 is anyone’s guess.
If you’re interested in investing in
income-producing real estate, Frank Gallinelli
is your man. He’s the founder and president
of real data, the real estate industry’s
leading investment software firm which helps
individuals invest in real estate. His book,
“what every real estate investor needs
to know about cash flow” has been a
top seller for the past two years.
I asked Gallinelli to explain why he believes
there is a huge difference between buying
a home and buying an investment property. FRANK GALLINELLI: If you want to invest in
income producing real estate, you have to
forget everything you know about your home,
your personal residence, and how that works
as a real estate investment. Because income
property is an entirely different creature.
Your home has a value that's based on comparable
sales, other houses in the neighborhood are
going up, a rising tide lifts all boats, yours
will probably go up as well. But an income
property, and an income property is one that
would not be bought or sold as a personal
residence, by that I mean perhaps a larger
multi-family, more than four units, perhaps
a small strip shopping center, an office building,
whatever, that you would not buy to live in
yourself, or no one else would. An income
property's value is based entirely on its
income stream. When you buy an income property,
you're not buying a pile of boards and bricks
and BX cables. You're just buying the cash
flow. CONSUELO MACK: Let me stop you there. What
about the proposition of buying a condominium
in Miami, for instance, and you make some
improvements, and then in the anticipation
in a hot market, that you're going to be able
to sell it in a month or a couple of months
or whatever, you know, what about buying a
single family home, fixing it up as an investment?
You know, how does that compare to the income
properties that you're talking about? FRANK GALLINELLI: Well, it's a different creature,
commonly called flipping, and it's different
because you're buying it based on what someone
would pay for it as a personal residence,
and so you don't have quite as much control
over the ultimate outcome of your investment
as you do with income property. And the reason
for that is with an income property you will
sell it for the capitalized value of its net
income. You can change its net income. You
can manage the property in such a way that
you improve its income, and when you do that,
you are quite literally making money. CONSUELO MACK: What kind of returns can you
expect from income properties? What are we
talking about over, you know, ten years? FRANK GALLINELLI: It varies quite a bit, but
what I see ... what we do in ... with our
... my company's software, for example, is
to do an internal rate of return analysis,
which takes into account the time value of
money, both the timing and the amounts of
their various cash flows that you experience
when you own an income property. And typically,
you look at something in the ... upwards of
above ten percent, and very often pushing
20 percent, in terms of the actual internal
rate of return that you would get on an income
property. And again, part of this is because
you have some control. This is one of the
few investments, you can't go, if you buy
a stock and put yourself on the Board and
have some impact on how that stock is going
to perform. But you can make management improvements.
For example, you can buy an income property
where the ... let's take a small office building.
You can improve security in the building.
You can improve the appeal, the aesthetics
of the common areas. There are any number
of things that you can do that make the property
more rentable, and when you improve that cash
flow, again, you create value. CONSUELO MACK: And more rentable, and you
could raise the rent and ... basically just,
you know, get more ... I mean on what, every
year, or every two years or whatever the terms
of the lease are ... (Overlap) FRANK GALLINELLI: Exactly. CONSUELO MACK: ... that there are things that
you can actually do that have proven time
that you can enhance the value of your return? FRANK GALLINELLI: And as a matter of fact,
the terms of the lease are one of the issues.
It's not at all uncommon, especially with
small income properties that are owned by
investors who do it as a sideline, who are
not professional property owners, it's easy
to get comfortable with the tenants that you've
got, and say well, you know, things are going
well and I'm just not going to keep up with
the market in regard to what I charge these
tenants. You find a property like that, and
it's not unlikely that the owner, if he or
she wants to sell it, will want to sell it
for what you could get for the rent, but that's
not an argument you want to listen to. You
want to pay a price that's based on what kind
of income the property really is achieving.
But if it's fallen behind the market, one
of your first things that you can do is to
take over that property, walk in and bring
it up to current market rents. You'll probably
lose all the tenants you've got, so you'll
build in the vacancy loss as part of one of
the costs of doing business, but it is not
unthinkable that you can make a substantial
improvement in the net income, and therefore
make a substantial improvement in the value
of the property, in a very short time, a year
or two. I've done it. CONSUELO MACK: How much time should you expect
to put into income property? Most people,
again, who are listening, aren't doing it
now. They would consider it to be a sideline
investment ... FRANK GALLINELLI: Right. CONSUELO MACK: ... in addition to whatever
their professional pursuits are. So how time
consuming is it? FRANK GALLINELLI: It can be, but there are
two components to the time commitment that
you need to make. A very important one is
before you purchase. You really do need to
do your due diligence. Real estate is a local
phenomenon, so you need to know about the
job market, you need to know whether the main
employer in town is about to, you know, put
plywood over the windows. You need to know
if they're going to build new schools and
make substantial changes to the tax burden
on property owners. You need to know what
the rental market is. How much can you get
for the types of rental units that you're
looking at?
You also need to do the numbers. I can't over-emphasize
this, and again, this has been a business
of mine for 20 some odd years, but one of
the reasons is because I believe it, if you
don't do your financial projections and look
at best case-worst case, mostly likely scenarios
for how the property is going to function
as a cash flow item, as an income stream over
a number of years, you ... then you might
as well just throw darts at the Classifieds
and buy a property that way. But if you do
those kind of projections, you have a reasonable
idea of what you're getting into. So that's
your first time commitment. Your second time
commitment obviously is managing. And that,
you know, I will admit, when you buy mutual
funds, they don't call you in the middle of
the night to tell you the toilet's stopped
up. (Laughter) But that can happen. You have
to be prepared either to deal with these management
issues yourselves ... yourself, or to reduce
your cash flow a bit and use a management
company, professional management company,
to help you out with that. CONSUELO MACK: Starting out, better to do
it close to where you are, just so you can
oversee things yourself? FRANK GALLINELLI: As the anvil sales man used
to say in "The Music Man", you got
to know the territory. Okay? You really do
have to know the terri ... you need to know
where the cracks in the sidewalk are, because
when you really understand your market place,
then you know what it is that you're purchasing,
you know what your opportunities are, you
know what you can get for a particular rental
unit, after it's fixed up, or after these
management improvements are made. You improve
the parking, you improve the outside lighting,
you improve the landscaping. You add broadband
connections to all the units, and include
that as a freebie, as a perk. (Overlap) CONSUELO MACK: And so these are real things
that you can do that will add to the value
of your income stream? FRANK GALLINELLI: Right. And when you know
what your market place is, then you can definitely
make the best use of your time, and make the
optimum ... gain the optimum return on your
investment. CONSUELO MACK: One last question about income
producing properties. A lot of people start
out by buying let's say a two family home,
and then renting part of it and living in
the other part. Is that a good way to start? FRANK GALLINELLI: It's an excellent way to
start. It's not really income property investing,
because the person who buys that from you
is still probably going to buy it based on
its value as a personal residence. Nonetheless,
it's a great way for someone to start with
their personal investing, because it's a way
... if things are a little pricey where you
are, it's a great way to begin to use the
leverage of owning real estate to own some
piece of real estate. You can then take that
piece of real estate, leverage it up to get
the financing that you need to buy the income
produce ... the real income producing properties. CONSUELO MACK: Oh, good idea. Let me switch
gears for a little bit, and talk about the
other real estate market, which is the single
family home, the residential real estate market.
You don't believe that we are in a housing
bubble. Why not? FRANK GALLINELLI: I think the economics simply
don't say that to us. We have a good employment
situation in most places. We have data that's
coming at us that says that even though there's
slowdown, as well there should be. If you
raise interest rates, as the Fed has been
doing, you constrict the pool of potential
qualified buyers in the market place, and
so as we've seen, the amount of time that
it takes to sell a house has now increased
from four months to 4.7 recently. That's not
so terrible, and that's not so surprising,
and it is not an impending cataclysm that
we're looking at. I think we're going to see
real estate prices slow down, and that's probably
a good thing, because if they run too fast
too long, I think you do run into the possibility
of a bubble at that point. But if they come
down with a soft landing, and there's every
indication that's the situation that we're
in, then we're I think in pretty good shape.
With all the press that there's been about
a real estate bubble over the last seven months,
I think it's a credit actually to the American
public that they're not buying a whole lot
of that, because you've seen no stampede,
you've seen no panic selling. I think most
home owners recognize that we've been through
worse stuff than this. You get a little bit
of interest rate pressure, you get a little
slowdown in the market, that's not the end
of the world. CONSUELO MACK: At what point do you, or would
you get nervous about the direction of the
housing market? And you know, I mean is there
a mortgage rate, is there an unemployment?
I mean, when ... FRANK GALLINELLI: I think ... (Overlap) CONSUELO MACK: ... when is it that you really
would get concerned about ... (Overlap) FRANK GALLINELLI: You almost have to have
a constellation of these things all happening
at once. I think if you ... if you're to look
at employment becoming dicey, interest rates
suddenly starting to run at an accelerating
rate, vacancies among commercial properties
starting to balloon, all these other indicators,
if they're all starting to come together at
the same time then you might get a little
antsy. We're not seeing anything of that sort
at this point, so I'm not antsy. CONSUELO MACK: Okay. One last question, and
I guess it would be in the biggest mistake
category. The biggest mistake that an investor
in a real estate producing property can make,
what are the kind ... what's the kind of mistake
that you see people making over and over again
that turn what could potentially be a good
investment into a bad one? FRANK GALLINELLI: I think one of the biggest
mistakes is when you don't have the regard
for the property that you really need to.
You can not expect your tenants to take better
care of your property than you do. If you
allow deferred maintenance to accumulate,
if you buy a property that has deferred maintenance
and don't fix it, you're asking for trouble,
you're asking for a disaster. Because no one
is ever going to treat the property better
than you do yourself. So the first thing you
always must do is set very high standards
for yourself as a property owner. If something
is broken, fix it. If something is unsafe,
make it safe. If something is dirty, clean
it up. CONSUELO MACK: Frank Gallinelli, really great
tips. Thank you so much ... FRANK GALLINELLI: Thank you. CONSUELO MACK: ... for joining us.
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