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What Does the Future Hold for Commercial Real Estate?

Inflation, interest rates, concerns about recession, pandemic-inspired work-style changes, taxes. There are enough wild cards in the deck to give any economic forecaster vertigo.

Not all real estate markets or all sectors are created equal, so to paraphrase an old TV auto ad, your mileage may vary. Nonetheless, we think it’s possible to make at least some reasonable and general forecasts about the near-term prospects for commercial real estate. Here is some of what we’re hearing, and thinking.

Multifamily

The multifamily sector seems likely to continue showing positive revenue growth. Freddie Mac predicts 3.5% increase in gross income nationally from apartment rentals in 2023, and a 5.1% vacancy rate. The multifamily market was outrageously strong in 2021, has cooled off somewhat since then, but still looks like a propitious place for investor dollars. With mortgage rates at their highest level in years, and the inventory of single-family homes for sale in short supply in many areas, there should be a lot of folks who must opt for apartments — hence, continued strong demand. Globest suggests that “multifamily remains a front-running investment choice.”

Office

The office market seems a bit harder to get a handle on. Many office workers have become very comfortable with working from home and are reluctant to go back into the office. They’ve been saving on commuting costs, especially in a time of high gas prices, on child care, and sometimes even on the cost of business attire. Some employers are demanding that workers return full time, but many are agreeing to a hybrid model, a few days a week in the office and a few at home. For many businesses, this means they need less office space. An in-depth interview on Co-Star with three industry analysts concurs that hybrid work is here for the long term and that demand for space is likely to decrease.

These analysts also noted that the suburban office market has been more resilient than the central business districts, and that suburban vacancies have actually been lower than those in CBDs. Finally, they note that while office leasing appears to be stabilizing, rising interest rates have been putting a damper on sales.

Industrial

If there is one clear winner right now, it would appear to be the industrial sector. In an article on trends in industrial real estate, commercialsearch.com says, “Onshoring efforts, coupled with a continuation of last year’s e-commerce boom, have only added to the already sky-high demand for industrial real estate.” It further quotes an analyst who believes this sector will be “among top performers across the commercial real estate sector in 2023.”

Similarly, NAIOP’s Industrial Space Demand Forecast says, ”Despite rising interest rates and growth in the supply of new space entering the market, the outlook for industrial real estate remains bright as supply chain conditions steadily improve. Low vacancy rates will continue to support growth in rents and property values.”

Retail

Retail, like politics, tends to be hyper-local. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, The Decline of the Five-Day Commute Is a Boon to Suburban Retail, puts this in the context of the post-pandemic environment. The trend of businesses moving their office out of the central business district has led to fewer people shopping in downtown locations; but on the flip side, the suburbs have generally been the beneficiaries. “In the second half of last year, urban retail availability surpassed suburban availability for the first time since at least 2013, according to real-estate firm CBRE. Asking rent growth in the suburbs also outpaced urban areas last year.”

Overall — Sustainability

One phenomenon that looks like it will cut across all sectors is the growing interest in sustainability. It seems very likely that this will drive demand for green buildings. As we all become more aware of the impact that buildings can have on the environment, there is a growing demand for green buildings that are designed to be energy-efficient and environmentally friendly. This is creating opportunities for developers who can build green buildings. There are also financial incentives to commercial property owners, including reduced operating costs, increased asset value, and higher rents. We’ll be having a follow-up post with more on this soon, so stay tuned.

Frank Gallinelli



         


Copyright 2022,  Frank Gallinelli and RealData® Inc. All Rights Reserved
The information presented in this article represents the opinions of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of RealData® Inc. The material contained in articles that appear on realdata.com is not intended to provide legal, tax or other professional advice or to substitute for proper professional advice and/or due diligence. We urge you to consult an attorney, CPA or other appropriate professional before taking any action in regard to matters discussed in any article or posting. The posting of any article and of any link back to the author and/or the author’s company does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation of the author’s products or services.  Building photo by John Unwin on Unsplash Solar array photo by Trinh Trần on pexels.com

NEW Version 20 of Real Estate Investment Analysis Pro Edition Software

We’re very excited to announce the release of new Version 20 of our Real Estate Investment Analysis software. This application has been the go-to solution for thousands of income-property investors since its first release in 1982.

(No, that’s not a typo. We’re proud to report almost four decades of enhancements based on users’ feedback.)

Version 20 has big new features and a whole new outlook on both development and investment properties. It has you covered on all fronts — buy and hold, build and hold, fix and flip, value-add — now you can model them all with one software program.

At its core, Real Estate Investment Analysis (REIA) is income-property investment analysis software for all who deal with commercial or residential income properties: individual and institutional investors, developers, brokers, lenders, accountants, portfolio managers, financial planners, builders, and architects.

It helps you make detailed income and expense projections, before- and after-tax cash flow calculations, key ROI measurements, partnership analyses, and a great deal more.

New functionality in v20 brings you month-by-month development cash flow planning, with drawdown construction loan for value-add, renovation, even construction from the ground up. Evaluate the development phase, then see how holding the property produces returns over time.

Get the full scoop here about new version 20.

Copyright 2020, RealData® Inc. All Rights Reserved

The information presented in this article represents the opinions of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of RealData® Inc. The material contained in articles that appear on realdata.com is not intended to provide legal, tax or other professional advice or to substitute for proper professional advice and/or due diligence. We urge you to consult an attorney, CPA or other appropriate professional before taking any action in regard to matters discussed in any article or posting. The posting of any article and of any link back to the author and/or the author’s company does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation of the author’s products or services.


Are you involved in real estate education?

We’re reaching out to our followers who teach real estate investment, development, or finance to let you know that our Real Estate Investment Analysis course is available for the virtual classroom – now with volume academic pricing.

For more than a decade I’ve devoted much of my professional life to investor education, as a writer, Columbia adjunct professor, and through my company RealData. As you may know, a few years ago I created an online video course, Introduction to Real Estate Investment Analysis. It has grown to include a broad range of topics that are key to understanding how income-producing properties work, and how investors, developers, lenders, and others evaluate their financial dynamics.

With so many schools and colleges now needing to provide good content for a virtual learning environment, we’ve re-deployed the course as a resource that instructors can add to their existing curricula. We now offer volume academic pricing at a significant discount, depending on class size.

For an overview, including access to sample lessons, go to the course home page.  To see a complete course outline, click here.

If you’re involved in real estate or financial education, then I hope that this can help you provide meaningful content to your remote learners. To get a quote for volume licenses for student use or to discuss this further, please email me at education@realdata.com.

— Frank Gallinelli

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Copyright 2020,  Frank Gallinelli and RealData® Inc. All Rights Reserved

 

The information presented in this article represents the opinions of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of RealData® Inc. The material contained in articles that appear on realdata.com is not intended to provide legal, tax or other professional advice or to substitute for proper professional advice and/or due diligence. We urge you to consult an attorney, CPA or other appropriate professional before taking any action in regard to matters discussed in any article or posting. The posting of any article and of any link back to the author and/or the author’s company does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation of the author’s products or services.


Real Estate Partnerships and Preferred Return

Q. Can you explain more about how preferred return works in a real estate partnership? Does it always have to go only to the limited partner or non-managing partner?

A. The first point to make about real estate partnerships – whether limited, general or LLC – is that there is certainly no single, pre-defined structure used by all investors. In fact, you may be hard pressed to find two partnership agreements whose provisions are exactly the same.

Not all partnerships include a preferred return but, in those that do, its purpose is to counterbalance the risk associated with investing capital in the deal. Typically, the investor is promised that he or she will get first crack at the partnership’s profit and receive at least a X% return, to the extent that the partnership generates enough cash to pay it. In most partnership structures, the cash flow is allocated first to return the invested capital to all partners. The preferred return is paid next, before the General Partner or Managing Member receives any profit.

There are some variations as to exactly how the preferred return might be set up. If the partnership does not earn enough in a given year to cover the preferred return, the typical arrangement is to carry the shortfall forward and pay it when cash becomes available. If necessary it is carried forward until the property is sold, at which time the partners receive their accumulated preferred return before the rest of the sale proceeds are divided. Again, that assumes that the sale proceeds are in fact sufficient to pay the preferred return. If not, the limited partners have to settle for whatever cash is available.

The return may also be compounded or non-compounded. In other words, if part or all of the amount due in a given year can’t be paid and has to be carried forward, the amount brought forward may or may not earn an additional return (similar to compound vs. simple interest). The usual method is for it to be non-compounded. Hence the unpaid amount carried forward does not earn an additional return, but remains a static amount until paid.

An alternative but less common approach is to wipe the slate clean each year. If there isn’t enough cash to pay the preferred return, then the partnership pays out whatever cash is available and starts over from zero next year.

Real estate partnerships will typically define percentage splits between General (i.e., managing) and Limited (i.e., non-managing) partners for profit and sales proceeds. These splits do not come into play until the obligation to pay the preferred return has been met.

For example, let’s say that a limited partner invests $100,000. She is promised a 5% preferred return (non-compounded), 90% of cash flow after the return of capital and payment of preferred return, and 70% of sale proceeds. In the first five years, the partnership generates just enough cash to return the invested capital to all partners. Hence, all future cash flows represent profit. The partnership has a $16,000 cash flow the sixth year, a $20,000 cash flow the seventh year and also sells the property at the end of the seventh year with total proceeds of sale of $150,000. Here is what happens:

year 6 and 7 distributions to LP

The Limited Partner should receive a preferred return of $5,000 per year (5% of her $100,000 investment). By the end of year 6 she hasn’t received any of this return so she is owed $30,000. In the sixth year the partnership cash flow is only $16,000, so that is all she gets; the balance due is carried forward to year 7. In that year the partnership cash flow of $20,000 is sufficient to pay the $14,000 owed from year 6, the $5,000 from year 7 and still leave enough ($1,000) to split 90/10 with the General Partner. Finally, the property is sold at the end of year 7 with $150,000 proceeds to split 70/30 with the General Partner.

Regarding the question, “To whom does the preferred return go?” it is of course possible to structure a partnership so that it goes either to the General or the Limited partner or to Donald Duck if you think that’s a good plan. The presumed purpose of the preferred return is to encourage non-controlling investors to risk their capital in your project; and that encouragement often takes the form of a conditional promise of a minimum return, the “preferred return.” It seems to me that you would have a difficult time raising money from investors if your underlying message were, “This deal is so shaky that I need full control plus first dibs on the cash flow. If there’s anything left, you can have some.”

Run the numbers, but think beyond them. A good partnership is one where all the parties can enjoy a reasonable expectation of success.

Copyright 2009, RealData® Inc. All Rights Reserved
The information presented in this article represents the opinions of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of RealData® Inc. The material contained in articles that appear on realdata.com is not intended to provide  legal, tax or other professional advice or to substitute for proper professional advice and/or due diligence. We urge you to consult an attorney, CPA or other appropriate professional before taking any action in regard to matters discussed in any article or posting. The posting of any article and of any link back to the author and/or the author’s company does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation of the author’s products or services.
You may not reproduce, distribute, or transmit any of the materials at this site without the express written permission of RealData® Inc. or other copyright holders. The content of web sites displayed or linked from the realdata.com is the copyrighted material of those respective sites.

New version 6 of ‘Commercial / Industrial Real Estate’ released

Our big news today is about a major upgrade to one of our top software apps. Since 1983 income-property developers have been using “CID” to help them with project cost analyses and budget pro formas for build-and-hold as well as build-and-sell scenarios.

So — if you’re developing an apartment building, shopping center or other commercial property from the ground up — or if you’re renovating or expanding an existing property — take a look at this new version and check out its new features. It can help you plan your project, evaluate its feasibility, solicit partners, and make your case for financing.

You can get all the details here.


Extend RealData Programs To Fit Your Investment Property Or Development Analysis

One of the great advantages to using Excel as a development platform for our software products is the ability for you, the user, to make customizations to fit your analysis objectives.  We encourage our customers to add to the software rather than changing formulas so the base product remains unchanged.

It is very easy to add a user worksheet.  All RealData products have an “Add User Worksheet” feature in the RealData menu.  Just add your own worksheet and begin adding your own formulas which link back to our product.

In our Learn section, we have an article on expanding our popular development program, On Schedule, accommodate long term rental income when analyzing distressed, partially-built development projects such as housing developments and condominium buildings.

Support is included with the purchase of RealData’s products.  If you would like advice on creating your own extension to your copy of our software, send us an email.


My latest: Mastering Real Estate Investment

I’m hoping that, by now, you’ve heard I have a new book out: “Mastering Real Estate Investment: Examples, Metrics and Case Studies.” It was released just a few weeks ago, and like any proud author I’m pleased to say it’s doing well.

And so…  what’s it’s all about?  An why did I think anyone would read it?

I’d probably describe it best as being two books in one.  Quite a few readers of my first book, “What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Cash Flow…,” told me they wanted to see more examples of the 37 key calculations I discussed there. That’s an entirely reasonable request; most of us learn better from examples.

So, I began with the idea of creating a workbook of sorts.  For each of my 37 metrics I created a series of sample problems that the reader could work through.  And, of course, I provided the step-by-solution for every problem.

I would humbly submit (all right, maybe not so humbly) that this was a good idea, because to master anything you have to roll up your sleeves and get involved with it.  You can’t just read about these concepts, you have to practice them if you expect to internalize them as part of your approach to investing.  And that, by the way, is how “Mastering” got into the title.

It’s one thing to master these concepts, but it’s yet another to understand how to integrate them and apply them — and that’s why I wrote the second part of the book, the case studies.  I took four different type of properties — a single-family rental, a development project, and apartment building, and a commercial property.

What I tried to do here was to take real-life situations, where you have to deal with asking prices that may be realistic or not; where you encounter seller representations that may be accurate or not; where you have to make judgments and forecasts using imperfect current knowledge.

One of my goals in this part of the book was to show you how to play, “What if…” with your forecasts so as to give you a sense of the range of possible outcomes for your investment if things like rent projections, interest rates, resale costs varied.  Also, in a departure from some of my usual topics, I tried to show how to look at a re-hab project — specifically, how to estimate an appropriate price for a property that you plan to re-develop into an income-producing investment.

Part 2 of the book can stand on its own, so if you’re comfortable with concepts like NOI, cap rate, discounted cash flow and IRR, go ahead an read this part first.

You’ll find more about this book, and my others, here.


Welcome, Real Estate Investors and Developers

… to RealData’s blog. You probably know that we’ve always tried to provide a lot of useful content on this site, with educational articles, newsletters, and the like.  We want this blog to be a logical extension of that mission, but we also want it to be a place for more informal discussion.

This is a place that welcomes beginners, experience investors, and real estate professionals alike.  If a topic is pertinent and meaningful to you as a real estate investor, developer, appraiser, consultant, or educator, then it belongs in this blog.

So we may talk about where we think the real estate market is headed.  We’ll certainly discuss  nuts-and-bolts topics, like, “What exactly is a profitability index?” and “What’s a back-door approach and when do you use it?”

We want to tell you about useful resources as soon as we discover them (and so you won’t have to wait for our not-so-rigorously scheduled newsletter).  We definitely will talk about technology.  Do you know about the hidden gotchas lurking in Excel 2007?  And there are plenty of useful tips we can give you about using our RealData software to best advantage.

We’ll do our best to keep the conga line moving, but urge you to jump in with your comments.

Welcome aboard.

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